🔗 Share this article A Forecasting Platform Participant Made $436K on Bets on Maduro's Downfall. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A bettor made nearly half a million dollars on the ouster of the Venezuelan leader shortly prior to it was officially announced, raising questions about whether someone profited from inside knowledge of the event. Changing Odds in Predictions Predictions made on the forecasting site, a blockchain-based service, that Nicolás Maduro would be removed from office by the end of January rose in the period preceding Donald Trump declared on January 3rd that the president had been seized. One account, which became a member in December and placed four wagers, all on political events in Venezuela, earned over $nearly half a million from a starting bet of $32,537. It remains unclear. This unidentified trader had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Probability Spikes Before Public Statement Market statistics shows that users assessed the probability of Maduro's exit at just under 7% in the late afternoon of the Friday before the event. However the odds had increased to 11% by late Friday night and surged in the early hours of Saturday, pointing to a sudden change in positions immediately prior to the official statement was made. "This particular bet has all the characteristics of a transaction based on inside information," said an industry expert. A small number of other individuals also profited large payouts from bets on the same outcome. Regulatory Scrutiny Intensifies Politicians are starting to take note. A new rule put forward on the start of the week would prevent public officials from placing bets on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a market. Industry Context Event-driven betting sites have grown significantly in the United States, with participants able to wager on everything from sports to political events. Prediction markets encountered regulatory challenges under the last presidential term. Yet it has experienced less resistance during the present political climate. Insider trading is a crime in the stock market, but there are more ambiguous rules in the prediction market arena. A spokesperson for another major platform said their site "explicitly prohibits such activities of any form."