A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
